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WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?
The idea of latent demand is pretty subtle. The phrase latent typically refers to a thing that is dormant, not observable, you aren't yet realized. Demand may be the notion of the economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is usually defined by economists because the industry earnings of the market when that market becomes accessible and attractive for everyone by competing firms. It is often a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a companies are served in a efficient manner. It is normally expressed since the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The "market" is scheduled with a given level within the value chain. There may be latent demand with the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and also the raw materials level (the P.I.E. better levels with the value chain being always smaller as opposed to P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent need for bicycles and bicycle accessories isn't actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or more than actual sales if a marketplace is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from your quantity of factors, like the not enough international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the a part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is usually greater than actual sales in a very country market.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of "unit quantities", only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is rarely made, though one is implied). The units used with this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) instead of adjusted for future dynamics in return rates. If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a very substantial way when compared with recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand could be typically more than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the degree of latent demand.
As mentioned inside introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current services or products for the market can cease to exist inside their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and players may be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will probably be an international latent need for bicycles and bicycle accessories in the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, along with the actual identity from the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
THE METHODOLOGY
In order to estimate the latent interest in bicycles and bicycle accessories over a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory that such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely about the utilization of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there's an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of your country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level from the value chain, happens if an equilibrium is realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be in a situation to serve that demand in a minimal return. The only most significant variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other money at higher levels in the value chain). Other factors that will pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility to the product in question.
Ignoring, for your moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption may be a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one part of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the common propensity to consume would fall. The common propensity to eat could be the amount of consumption divided through the a higher level income, or slope in the line through the origin towards the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and located it to be true within the short-run (mostly according to cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the low the average propensity to consume. This sort of consumption function is labeled "A" within the figure below (note the rather flat slope with the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated how the marginal propensity to eat was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This sort of consumption function is show as "B" within the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The common propensity to use is constant.
Is it declining or perhaps it constant? A amount of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, inside the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter some time horizon, the greater consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to eat is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries without income eventually haven't any consumption (wealth is depleted). Whilst the debate surrounding beliefs about how exactly income and consumption are related and interesting, with this study a really particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we have been considering the latent interest in bicycles and bicycle accessories across some 230 countries. The smallest have under 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that most of the counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of the countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent interest in bicycles and bicycle accessories. So, latent demand within the long-run features a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to get different propensities to eat (including located on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can be the reason of differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I am going to now describe the methodology employed to make the latent demand estimates for bicycles and bicycle accessories. Since ICON Group has asked me to use this methodology to your large variety of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and might be applied to your wide selection of categories, not just bicycles and bicycle accessories.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, We've found the optimal approach is always to believe that certain key countries are more likely to get at or near efficiency than others. These countries get greater weight than these inside the estimation of latent demand in comparison to other countries which is why no known data are available. Of the countless alternatives, I've found the assumption that the world's highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for "efficiency". High aggregate income alone just isn't sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed being efficient). Aggregate income might be operationalized in a very amount of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or variety of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries rich in income per... --This text refers to the Digital edition.

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